In a head-to-head match up against John McCain, Barack Obama has a much better chance of coming out ahead than Hilary Clinton.  This is according to a recent survey conducted by SurveyUSA. 

I wanted to write about this yesterday, but then Maggie Williams, the Clinton campaign manager made me mad, so I had to vent a bit.  You can check that out here:  Clinton Campaign Lies About Loss

With the Elliot Spitzer as the big story yesterday, not a whole lot happened on the campaign trail, so this is a good day to squeeze this one in.

When you look at the overall electoral vote (EV) count, there is not much difference between the two match-ups.  Clinton has a 276 - 262 advantage vs. McCain and Obama's is 280 - 258.  The difference occurs when the poll is broken down state by state. 

Obama wins bigger in more states and the states that he loses are more competitive. 

The most fascinating example of this is in Nebraska, one of two states that splits its EVs. Maine is the other. 

Nebraska has a total of five EVs which means it has three Congressional Districts.  The winner of each district takes one EV and the winner of the overall vote is awarded the remaining two. 

According to SurveyUSA Clinton loses Nebraska 57-30%.  Obama keeps it close 45-42%. 

What's even more extraordinary is that Obama actually wins two out of the three Congressional Districts, giving him two EVs from Nebraska.

If Obama can win in a state that gave George W. Bush a 66-33% victory and that hasn't voted for a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson in 1964, he can win anywhere. 

According to SurveyUSA, Sen. Obama wins in every region except the southeast.  He keeps those southeastern races close however, and is within three points in North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, and even Texas.

Hilary Clinton's map, onthe other hand, is a bit more frightening to the average Democrat hoping for a win in November.  Sen. Clinton somehow manages to lose the liberal strongholds of Washington and Oregon.  These states are so liberal that they even voted for Dukakis in 1988 and Clinton is in danger of losing both.

To her credit, the Senator from New York does put Tennessee and Missouri in play and she actually wins in Arkansas.  Barack could make it interesting in Missouri where he trails 48-42%, but McCain is a virtual lock against him in Tennessee and Arkansas.

I could keep listing these details forever.  I love this stuff, but for brevity's sake we should get to the big picture.

The big picture looks good for Obama.

I calculated a range of electoral votes for each candidate.  I added up EVs in the states where Obama was ahead by 4% or less.  Then I took the EVs from where John McCain was less than 4% ahead against Obama.

If Obama gained none of McCain's close states and McCain gained all of Obama's close states that would be his worst case scenario.  On the other hand, if Obama won all of McCain's close states and McCain couldn't pick off any of Obama's that would be his best case.  I did the same for Clinton vs. McCain.

After spending an unhealthy amount of time figuring this out it appears that Obama has a range of 241 - 386 EVs.  It takes 270 EVs to win.

Clinton, on the other hand, has a range of 226-326.

Furthermore, Barack would be defending close leads in only four states while McCain would have to defend seven close states against the Senator from Illinois.

In Clinton's case, she would be defending five close calls against McCain's four. 

Clearly, Obama has an easier path to the White House.

That's not all.  As a bonus, Obama would be a huge help in gaining a bigger majority in the Senate.  There are a total of 12 Senate seats that are either open or vulnerable, all but one are GOP seats.

In a Presidential election year, the candidate who wins a particular state generally helps the down-ballot candidates.  In other words, the people who come out to vote for the Democrat for president usually cast a vote for the Democrat for Senate while they're at the polling place.

In all 12 of those races, Obama would bring out more voters than Hilary.

Another poll or two like this before Pennsylvania could crush the myth that Clinton is more electable.  Obama is the better candidate.

PREDICTION FOR MISSISSIPPI:  Obama wins 61-39%, almost the same as Wyoming.  Also, turn out will be higher than expected, somewhere in the 150,000 - 200,000 range.

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