Like most Americans, I waited to fill out my taxes until the last minute.  I'm happy to say that I got the 1040 completed and into the post office - which was a complete nightmare by the way - on time.  Standing there got me thinking about what this exercise will feel like a year from now.  The reality is it all comes down to which administration is in power.  An Obama Administration would set America on a path towards economic recovery; a McCain Administration would doom us to four years of more of the same.

Economically speaking, America is bruised, if not broken.  Whether you're a Republican, Democrat or an independent, it's hard to argue that the last eight years have been kind to the US.  Take your pick: the rise of China and India, skyrocketing gas prices, the plummeting value of the dollar and now the utter collapse of the housing, and with it the debt markets shouldn't make anyone bullish.

But all is not lost.  I'm no expert on macroeconomics, but living in Silicon Valley and coming from the world of venture capital has helped me realize how true the cliché that "perception is reality" really is.  When entrepreneurs come in to see me with little more than an idea, I have only my perception of them, their product and the market opportunity upon which to make my decision.  At such an early stage, there are some things that can be measured, but for the most part, my perception defines their reality. 

Why is this relevant?  Well, many of the systems that our economy is based upon are ruled by people's perceptions.  If you've seen Mary Poppins, you know how a "run on a bank" works and the forces that I'm describing are the same but at a grander scale.  The oil market, which is often in the news due to its high volatility, has been referred to as the "assassination market" because it is so heavily affected by traders' perceptions of political instability in the Middle East.  The stock market is a grand exercise in public perception - entire businesses are built on the ability to predict what a company's future earnings or share price will be based on an array of factors.

These markets and many others have been brutalized by President Bush's economic and military policies.  An Obama Administration would be the boldest statement we as a nation could possibly make to the rest of the world that we are serious about breaking with the failures of the past eight years. 

And for those who say that they don't care how foreigners perceive us, it is important not to forget that we live in the age of the global economy. Foreign governments and institutions are heavy consumers of our products and large investors in our markets.  In my own industry, I've heard that Saudi money accounts for somewhere between 3 and 9 percent of all investment capital.

A McCain Administration by contrast, would signal to the world that we have learned nothing from two terms of Dubya, and we would almost certainly face a hard slog to recovery.  Just the prospect of war with Iran, a major supplier of oil to the world market, would provide more upward pressure on world oil prices.  Ready for $5 per gallon gas?  If you think I'm overstating it, ask yourself if you would have guessed 4 years ago that gas prices would now be approaching $4 per gallon.  Rising gas prices will increase the price of everything else, and we run the risk of experiencing the stagflation of the ‘70s all over again.

Before I get accused of oversimplifying, an Obama Presidency would not be the panacea that would instantly deliver us from economic hardship.  There are fundamental problems with our economy that need to be addressed and will take time to heal.  But the one part of the equation we as voters have control over is who represents us to the rest of the world. Like Bill Clinton was in the ‘90s, Obama is the exact change our economy needs.

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