It has been a rough couple of weeks for Barack Obama. The Clinton attack machine and the absurd politics-by-association game have taken their toll on Team Obama.
The mainstream media has rejoiced in the knowledge that they have convinced much of the American public, and the planet for that matter, that this will be the never-ending primary season.
The truth is that if we tune out the cable news networks and talk radio, simple math provides us a light at the end of the tunnel. That light we see is the beautiful State of Oregon. No, this is not another Stonecipher prediction it is simply an analysis of the delegate count. No matter how you cut it, Obama will wrap up this nomination on or before May 20.
The Senator from Illinois simply needs to ford a few rivers, properly pace his yoke of oxen and avoid dying of dysentery on his way to the West Coast. Unlike the Oregon Trail's pioneers or 1980s computer game players though, Obama's trail to Oregon doesn't begin in Missouri. It begins in North Carolina and Indiana, takes him through West Virginia and Kentucky and finally finishes in Oregon.
Currently Obama needs 134 pledged or elected delegates to clinch a win over Hillary Clinton in the pledged delegate category. Once Obama reaches this threshold, the only way for Hillary Clinton to win the nomination is to make a concerted effort to rip the nomination out of his hands in some sort of convention floor power move which is sure to destroy the Democratic Party.
The Party leaders will not allow this to happen.
So how does Barack Obama reach his magic number of 134? The easiest way is to win Indiana and North Carolina. If May 6th turns out to be a big night for Obama and he can win 55% of Indiana's pledged delegates and 65% of North Carolina's he will cut the magic number to about 17. This is assuming that the all-important Guam Caucus splits down the middle 2-2.
A two-state victory for Obama on May 6th will make the magic number irrelevant since it would trigger a flood of superdelegates to flow into the Obama camp leaving Clinton without an argument to carry on. But if she defies the Party Leaders and continues she is likely to lose West Virginia where Obama would only need a 60/40 split in order to win the remaining 17 delegates.
As mentioned above this has been a rough couple weeks for Barack Obama. And like Gov. Schweitzer in Montana says, elections are decided by the least informed. The least informed are likely to break for Hillary these days since all they hear on the news right now is Rev. Wright. And that e-mail they got eight months ago about Obama being a radical Muslim is still lurking in the back of their minds. Fantastic that these people vote isn't it?
The point is it will be tough for Barack to sweep the May 6th primaries. It does look like he'll win North Carolina by a substantial margin though. A Zogby Poll from May 1 shows Obama leading Clinton 50% - 34%. Other polls are similar and a 55/45 split in Obama's favor seems reasonable and maybe even charitable to Clinton.
Indiana is a different story. In the state that practically claims basketball as its official religion the lead changes that have taken place in the Obama-Clinton contest resemble a high scoring NBA game.
Clinton is currently on a three day run with leads in the last few polls, but the lead has changed at least four times since the beginning of the month. Anything can happen in The Hoosier State, but it appears that the final score will be close. If all goes well for Clinton, though, it is very possible for her to win 55/45.
This bad version of May 6th where Obama hangs on in North Carolina but loses solidly in Indiana, still gives Sen. Obama 88 delegates bringing his magic number down to just 46.
Following the Indiana/North Carolina split the mainstream media will be all too happy to declare a "game changing" victory for Hillary Clinton. Clinton is already using that exact phrase which the media will surely echo.
The "game changer" will make West Virginia very tough for Obama. In a state which is already tailor made for Clinton, and with all her momentum and media support, Obama may face a landslide defeat there. But, as I have said before even "if Hillary Clinton suddenly learned how to inspire people, while Obama simultaneously began a series of nonsensical, rambling, far right-wing outbursts he'd still get 27%."
So let's use that 27% as a base low point and assume that West Virginia goes 27% - 73% for Clinton on May 13th. Obama would pull in 8 delegates dropping the magic number to 38 with Kentucky rapidly approaching.
Now, I need to take a moment to admit that until this point I have completely ignored the fact that the Kentucky and Oregon primaries fall on exactly the same day, May 20th. However, for artistic and more importantly, marketing reasons, it simply will not work to have this thing end in Kentucky.
No that we're all clear on that, Kentucky is next.
Kentucky will be the same as West Virginia, a pro-Clinton state to begin with. The Clinton momentum will create another massive landslide in her favor and for the argument's sake we'll say she matches her West Virginia margin and beats Obama again 73% - 27%. That 27% for Obama will bring in 14 delegates. Now the magic Obama number is 24.
Unlike Kentucky and West Virginia, Oregon is not natural Clinton territory. It is anything but. Oregon is home to a very highly educated population; very bad news for Hillary Clinton. Exit polls nation wide have shown that the more educated a person is the more likely they are to vote for Barack Obama than Hillary Clinton.
Further adding to Clinton's trouble in Oregon, it is a vote-by-mail state. This means that many ballots will already be in the mail by the time Clinton's hypothetical momentum is realized in the Beaver State. And getting back to that education thing, Clinton voters seem to have a very difficult time figuring out how to vote, the more complex the process, the better Barack does.
I'm not sure that the Hillary people are going to be able to pull through for her if they have to vote AND stick the ballot in an envelope AND drop that envelope in the mailbox. Three steps may be too much to ask from her supporters.
Obama is likely to win here regardless of what else is going on, but as long as he doesn't lose Oregon by more than 8-points he will reach the magic number of delegates necessary to clinch a win and that will be it.
The pundits will have nothing left to say after Oregon except these three words:
Ballgame. Barack Obama.
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