There is no shortage of calls for Hillary Clinton's withdrawal from the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. In the past few days, we've heard Clinton ueber-supporters, opponents, and media pundits alike question the "math" behind the New York Senator's strategy in remaining in the race.
And it's understandable why. By most accounts, Clinton is already at an insurmountable deficit. But for its part, her campaign seems to be vehemently insisting that it's not the case. In doing so, they've pointed to three main areas of hope for their reclamation of the delegate lead: the remaining primaries, the superdelegates, and the nullified Michigan and Florida delegations. With success in these three categories, they say, Clinton can be the party's nominee for president.
Here's where we are at now:
Clinton : 1698 Obama: 1867
If Clinton indeed manages to excel in the areas her campaign maintains that she will, let's see how her performance could potentially affect the race.
The Remaining Primaries
Of the six contests remaining, Hillary Clinton is sure to win two of them (Kentucky and West Virginia), and potentially a third. Polls in Oregon, however, show Obama with a massive lead over the former First Lady. And while there has been little or no polling done in the other two (South Dakota and Montana), one would have to assume that Obama will fare well there, based on the fact that he's won every single surrounding state by enormous margins. So the most likely scenario: Clinton will take her two, Obama will win his three, and Puerto Rico will be up for grabs.
But we're not looking for the most likely scenario. If everybody had done that, Clinton would have seen her fate and dropped out weeks (if not months) ago. Let's look at the best possible case for Clinton.
Let's say Clinton not only sweeps the remaining primaries (a tall order in and of itself), but that she crushes Obama by 20 points in each one. And since she's polling so well in West Virginia, let's assume that she'll double that, and beat him by 40 points in the Mountain state. That closes the gap a little bit:
Clinton : 1827 Obama: 1954
Even with 60-40 wins in every single contest. Keep in mind, she's only achieved that kind of margin twice- one of them being in Arkansas, where she was First Lady for more than a decade. For her to all of a sudden pull out six of them would be nothing short of miraculous. But as you can see above, she still comes up short.
Superdelegates
The next place to look: superdelegates. As of this very moment, there are 248 uncommitted Democratic elected officials and distinguished DNC officials. As of late, superdelegates haven't been too kind to Clinton. Over the past two weeks (from April 28 to May 12), Obama picked up close to 30 new supporters, turning a 22-delegate lead for Clinton into a 4.5 delegate lead for himself. But again, we're looking for Clinton's best case scenario. So let's assume that this most current trend will stop dead in its tracks, and that Clinton will convince 60% of the remaining superdelegates to join her cause. Now it's even closer:
Clinton : 1976 Obama: 2053
Even with 60% of the all-important superdelegates, Clinton still trails Obama by more than 75. Plus, there's another problem: Obama has already reached the magic number of 2,025 designated by the Democratic Party as the total number of delegates needed to clinch the nomination. So as far as the party's concerned, Obama is the nominee.
But that doesn't mean Clinton is done trying.
Michigan and Florida
What if the world turned upside down for a moment, and the DNC not only sat the delegations from Florida and Michigan, but they used the totals decided in January to do it?
Although the Democratic Party obliterated the delegates from Florida, let's give Clinton the delegates she technically would have won (even though Obama didn't contest the state). That gives Clinton a little boost:
Clinton : 2081 Obama: 2120
Now she trails by 39. It's hard to figure how the DNC would use the vote totals in Michigan (considering they mandated that candidates remove their names from the ballot, and that Clinton was the only candidate who failed to comply). But for argument's sake, let's let Clinton keep hers, and award all "uncommitted" votes to Obama, whose name was otherwise not on the ballot:
Clinton : 2154 Obama: 2175
Obama still wins by more than 20 delegates.
...
It's hard to figure how much more of an advantage you can give to Clinton. In this mock-up, we gave her:
(a) margins she's almost never enjoyed- some of which in states she doesn't stand a prayer of winning, let alone by that much
(b) the lion's share of the superdelegates that have been flocking to Obama in mounting numbers
(c) the capitulation and relenting of the party and Obama on MI and FL, despite the fact that thus far, the party has refused to allow Clinton to benefit by her disregard for the rules as they were laid out beforehand
Even with all that massively unrealistic posturing, Clinton is still statistically doomed.
It's also hard to figure how Clinton and her rooms full of strategists and statisticians haven't figured this out. Most likely, they have. But in that case, what are they doing?
Obama says he will "declare victory," on May 20, and Clinton hasn't given him any choice. At some point, he has to begin campaigning for the real contest against Johm McCain in November. But in the meantime, don't expect Clinton to bow out gracefully. Her intent to remain in the race even while confronted with seemingly insurmountable odds is concrete. And as it has for the past several months, the Clinton saga will continue- probably right up to the convention. For all we can tell from the hard data, maybe beyond as well.
Read jwilkes’s Last Article: Obama Could Be First Democrat in 30+ Years to Win Electoral Majority
