Three months ago, the story behind the race for the Democratic nomination was a different one than it is today. Barack Obama was headed toward the nomination, but Hillary Clinton wasn't exactly out of it, either. She was still posting primary wins, albeit in contests where her leads had been whittled down from double-digit margins to razor-thin, two point nail-biters (i.e. Texas). And while the future was becoming more and more of a sure thing, it wasn't set in stone. Surrounded by yes-men holdovers from what was left of her husband's political team, Clinton deluded herself into thinking she could still pull off an upset victory and win the right to fight on through November.
Had the former First Lady at that point even considered withdrawing from the race, she might have saved herself a place in the next Democratic administration. Talk of the "Dream Ticket," ill fated as it might have been, still circulated with some amount of optimism. And even if the vice presidential slot wasn't in her future, there might have been a high cabinet post waiting for her in Washington.
But fast forward a few months, and look at Clinton's new position: all but statistically eliminated from the competition, she's has made more enemies than friends, and even managed to drive away some of the early supporters that she once boasted would carry her to the nomination. And Obama, having weathered the storm of personal attacks and gutter politics that seem to exemplify the Clinton brand, is under no obligation to negotiate with her.
All of this strikes an interesting chord, especially as reports are emerging from behind the scenes that Bill Clinton is pushing hard- very hard- for party insiders to force his wife onto Obama's ticket. And now it seems a little more clear what Clinton's strategy is: she's holding the Democratic Party hostage.
Or at least the die-hard faction of it that's still supporting her presidential bid. At some point, Clinton realized that she wasn't going to win this race, but saw an opportunity to insert herself into the nation's number two spot in the executive branch- potentially setting herself up to run again in another four (if Obama ultimately loses in 2008) or eight years (if he wins two terms). And confronted with the moral dilemma of (1) asking nicely, and (2) launching a hostile takeover to obtain it, she chose the latter. She's saying, "either you put me on the ticket, or I'll stay in this race long enough to withhold these votes for good." It's political Russian roulette.
"Unite the party" has become a popular phrase of late, and by her apparent logic, Clinton believes that she convince the party that it can't be done without her involvement. There was a time that might have been true. One survey from a few months back suggested that one out of every five Democratic primary voters would defect to John McCain in the general election if his or her personal choice between Obama and Clinton were to fail to get the nomination. But today, it's a different story. What was once a 50-50 split between the two contenders is now a double-digit blowout in favor of Obama: a Rueters/Zoby poll from earlier this week gave the Illinois Senator a 26% lead over his Empire State rival when Democratic participants were asked which candidate they favor. And with Clinton's latest flap about the assassination of Robert Kennedy, she's likely bracing for a few more defections.
What will be important for Obama to do in the next month or two is to choose a vice-presidential candidate who can effectively accomplish what Hillary Clinton can without involving her at all. That might mean choosing someone like John Edwards, Governor Ted Strickland of Ohio, or Wesley Clark. But if he hasn't realized it already, the impending message will soon be made clear- he doesn't need Clinton to be competitive in the fall campaign. And in fact, she might be more a liability than a boon to his prospects.
Essentially, Clinton has run herself out of a job. She might have been in a position to negotiate for a spot on the ticket awhile back, but that ship has sailed. Now, her continued presence isn't just hurting her chances this election cycle, it's cutting into her future prospects, her current career, and her husband's already-tarnished legacy.
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