Six months ago, there wasn't a person in the world- among pundits, analysts, journalists, party insiders, and even the candidates themselves- who could have told you that the final three contests of the Democratic primary season would be of any importance at all. On the low end, some thought that the party would have a nominee before Super Tuesday. Others thought that the one-day 21-state extravaganza on March 4th would pretty much seal the deal. On the more protracted side, there were a select few who predicted that the fight would drag on through the last of the big state contests back in April. After all, that's why all the states were playing leapfrog back in 2007 to push their primaries up to the front of the electoral calendar.
And yet, rounding the final turn of the protracted race, it will be on the final day of voting that a candidate reaches the delegate threshold of 2,025 needed to officially clinch the nomination.
The contests in Puerto Rico (Sunday), South Dakota (Tuesday), and Montana (Tuesday) represent the culmination of presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama's efforts to extinguish the last glimmer of hope for his chief rival throughout the past year, former First Lady Hillary Clinton.
The Current State of the Democratic Race
As it stands, Obama holds his largest lead yet, with a margin just over 200 delegates ahead of the New York Senator. That number is just about insurmountable, especially considering that the final three contests combine will only distribute 86 delegates proportionally between the two candidates. Additionally, there are 277 superdelegates who have yet to pledge their support to one candidate or the other. But those aren't looking too promising for Clinton: in the past two weeks, about 5 superdelegates have been trickling into the Obama camp for every one that has gone the other way.
Democratic Party Rules and Bylaws Committee Meeting
Painfully aware of her dire state, Clinton will try her luck with the Rules and Bylaws Committee of the Democratic Party, which will meet this weekend to decide the fate of the Michigan and Florida delegates that were stripped by the DNC when the two states advanced their primary dates in violation of party rules. Dividing the delegates will be tricky, especially in Michigan, where the DNC asked candidates to remove their names from the ballot. Clinton was the only Democrat not to comply.
There are a number of options currently on the table:
1. Clinton's best-case scenario: seat the delegates based on the results of the January vote, which gives her the most delegates.
2. Michigan's proposal: seat the Florida delegation based on the January results, giving each representative a half vote. Split the Michigan delegates, giving 69 to Clinton and 59 to Obama.
3. The ½ and ½: Seat all delegates from Michigan and Florida, giving all delegates a ½ vote each.
4. The ½ and 1: Seat all delegates from Michigan and Florida, giving pledged delegates ½ of a vote and superdelegates 1 vote each.
5. Obama's best-case scenario: seat none of the delegates from either state, giving the least amount of possible ground to Clinton.
Even if Clinton were to prevail and manage to get all of the Florida and Michigan delegates seated, it's nonetheless difficult to see how she'd be able to parlay that success into the nomination: it still leaves Clinton about 115 delegates behind Obama. But Clinton hopes that a victory before the committee would put her within striking distance of the lead, and that it might help her to convince some uncommitted superdelegates to join her cause.
That leaves the three primaries.
Puerto Rico Democratic Primary
The island territory may be the only bright point for Clinton, electorally. Current polling shows her with a 15 to 20 point lead there. If that holds, Clinton could take as many as 33 delegates. But that also means that Obama will get 22, reducing Clinton's net gain to just 11. Moreover, it pushes the Illinois Senator ever closer to the magic number of 2,025.
South Dakota Democratic Primary and Montana Democratic Primary
Clinton's gains in Puerto Rico will not only be insignificant- they'll probably be short lived. Opinion polling in both South Dakota and Montana show Obama with double-digit leads over Clinton. In Montana, he's up by almost 20. There are only 31 delegates up for grabs in the two states combined, meaning that Obama will probably be looking at a net gain of 16 to 19 delegates.
Democratic Oversight
Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, and DNC Chairman Howard Dean have all pledged to step in and take swift action to end the primary if there remains any question after next week. The most likely scenario is that they won't have to. Obama is all but mathematically guaranteed to win the nomination. And after the DNC clears up any issues surrounding Michigan and Florida, all of the fuzzy math should be made relatively clear.
Nonetheless, Clinton may not go gracefully. She's come a long way to come up just a few yards short of the goal line. But internal support from the rank and file members of the party is waning, and Clinton is already finding that the support for her to stay in the race just a month ago is rapidly evaporating. A California poll released today shows that the state she won by eight points back in February would go the other way be huge margins if voting were held today. Still, she may stick it out until the convention anyway in the hopes that her persistence will either convince voters to return to her increasingly lonely camp, or the nominee to make her the running mate on his ticket.
