When it comes to presidential elections, Ohio has been- in recent years- a boon to the GOP. In each of the last two contests, it's provided it's 20 plus electoral votes to George W. Bush, both of which were decided by fewer than 12.
But this time around, things are looking bright for the Barack Obama's campaign in the Buckeye State, where three consecutive polls have given Obama a comfortable lead over John McCain in the general election. It began with a Survey USA poll from mid-May that put Obama up 9 points, and was followed by a Public Policy Polling study from earlier in the week that gave him an 11-point lead. The latest is a Quinnipiac poll that shows McCain trailing by six. That puts the RCP average at +6.2 in favor of Obama, enough to move the state from the "tossup" column firmly into the Obama camp.
Consider what an improbable victory the Ohio numbers represent for the Obama campaign. The fact that the state hasn't been particularly friendly to Democrats in recent years is just the beginning. Beyond that, it's even less friendly to Obama, who was throttled by Hillary Clinton here back in March. Clinton didn't just edge out a victory here, as she did in Texas and Indiana - she sailed to it. The final tally gave her a 9-point margin over Obama, who came in at just over 44% of the popular vote.
Moreover, this is a state that is seemingly in McCain's central demographic. The balanced political climate features a cross section of voters, including a wealth of independent swing voters, which the Arizona Senator has targeted as his must-win group. In fact, a poll from just about six months ago by Survey USA put McCain ahead of any Democratic challenger by 15 points.
What has likely contributed to Ohio's change of heart is the continued economic woes on the national front. The Economist called the state "a slice of Midwest that contains a bit of everything American- part north-eastern and part southern, part rural and part urban, part hardscrabble poverty and part booming suburb." With the widespread financial burdens, that means that people across Ohio's socioeconomic spectrum are struggling as a result of the sagging economy. A good chunk of the state's GDP comes from industrial production, one of the hardest hit sectors of the national downturn. It's home to numerous automobile and manufacturing plants that supply everything from rubber tires to the machines that produce them. In many ways, the national economic situation can be measured on the faces of the men and women work there, and with layoffs in all types of manual labor, Ohioans are looking for some respite. As it stands, Republicans- and George W. Bush in particular- are finding their feet to the fire when it comes to accountability, and that appears to be putting McCain in a rough spot.
Trouble in Ohio could spell danger for McCain on a much wider scale. It's varied and diverse demographics make the state a perfect testing group for the rest of the nation. In other words, the ground situation in Ohio is a fairly good indicator of feelings across the United States. Since 1892, the candidate who wins Ohio in the general election has won the White House all but twice. What could be more bad news for McCain is that no Republican presidential candidate has ever won the White House without winning Ohio.
Read jwilkes’s Last Article: Obama Could Be First Democrat in 30+ Years to Win Electoral Majority
