After months of struggling to overcome a considerable deficit favor of John McCain in Michigan, Barack Obama has stormed back to retake command of the lead in the race to secure Michigan's seventeen electoral votes in the general election.
Three consecutive polls have shown Obama out in front of McCain, including one that gives him a nine-point edge. That reverses a trend favoring the Arizona Senator stretching all the way back to late February.
Though it's awarded its Electoral College cache to Democratic candidates in each presidential election going back more than a decade (George H.W. Bush was the last Republican to win the state in 1988), Republicans threatened early on to put Michigan in play in 2008. But despite the son of one of its former governors in the hunt for the GOP nomination, Democrats maintained a stronghold in the Wolverine State until well into the New Year.
With Michigan's decision to move its state primary date ahead of that which was authorized by both of the national parties began a conflict that opened a new opportunity for the eventual Republican nominee. In deciding penalties for defiance of national rules, the two parties took divergent paths, with the GOP voting to strip offending states of one-half of its delegates to the national convention. That decision- while harsh- preserved the right of the people of Michigan to be represented at its nominating ceremony.
But in a move that has plagued the party's relationship with both Michigan and Florida ever since, the Democratic National Committee made good on its threat to withhold all representation at the party gathering in Denver.
When hopes that a compromise could or would be reached in the matter began to dwindle, so too did support in Michigan. By the end of February, Obama had ceded what was an eight-point margin just two weeks before, according to a Rasmussen poll conducted on the 17th. In March, two studies from the same source showed McCain with a steady advantage.
Over the following months, support for the Republican nominee in Michigan grew steadily, so that by late May, McCain had established a four-point buffer between he and his Democratic rival, confirmed by surveys from two separate polling firms: one by Survey USA, the other by EPIC-MRA.
The close of the hard-fought Democratic primary, however, opened the door for a reversal of fortune. Soon after Hillary Clinton's withdrawal from contention- and even just prior to it, when it became apparent that her loss was imminent- Obama began to blitz the state with campaign stops and announcements. He rolled out two of his biggest nominations- those from former vice presidential nominee John Edwards and former vice president Al Gore- in Michigan, and has held a number of capacity-crowd drawing appearances there as well.
Though Republicans are hoping for one more change of tides, Democrats will look to keep the state in their column for good, continuing their run of blue in Michigan.
