With his commanding recapture of Michigan earlier this month (he annihilated a four-point deficit in favor of John McCain to take a 6-point lead for himself), Barack Obama has successfully lined up all of the states won by Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry in 2004. Moreover, what was a tentative lead in New Hampshire has blown open; according to the latest poll- a Rasmussen study from mid-June- Obama has built a double digit lead in the Granite State.
Obviously, those states weren't enough for Kerry, who fell 18 votes shy of the 270 electoral votes he would have needed to overcome George W. Bush. But this time around, Obama has added a few additional potential big state victories that should be more than enough to put him over the top.
Current polling shows Obama ahead in states that have dogged Democrats for years, particularly because of the wealth of electoral votes in play there. In Ohio, which went to George Bush in both 2000 and 2004, Obama has surged ahead, leading by almost 5 points, according to the RCP Average. A win there would net the Illinois Senator a whopping 20 electoral votes. That many would have swung both of the last two elections in favor of John Kerry and Al Gore. What's remarkable is that Ohio went to Hillary Clinton, his chief competitor for the Democratic nomination, in the primary contest.
In Indiana, where 10 electoral votes are up for grabs, Obama has mounted a narrow but promising lead. The state was one of Bush's largest electoral victories over the past eight years, giving him a 15.7 point margin in 2000, and a 20.7 in 2004. Though Obama leads by just a single point, his popularity there is growing, despite having lost the state to Clinton, as he did in Ohio.
Obama has also pushed a few smaller states firmly into his column, which could be helpful insurance if he were to lose ground in one of the bigger states in which he now leads. Colorado (9 electoral votes), New Mexico (5), and Iowa (7) all went to Bush in 2000 and 2004, but now sport convincing numbers in favor of Obama. Plus, Obama is polling even with McCain or threatening a very close race in a few more states, like typically red-state Virginia (13), where Obama has consistently maintained a narrow lead since early May.
Obama trails in Missouri (11), North Carolina (15), Montana (3), and Florida (27), but is continuing to gain on the Arizona Senator as the weeks progress. The most surprising for Democrats may be the latter of these, the Sunshine State, where Obama has cut a 10-point deficit down to 2.2. A victory there would be highly satisfying for Democrats, who've struggled considerably there in recent years. Moreover, it would likely be enough to make 2008 a landslide for Obama, if he were to hold firm in the states in which he currently leads.
Additionally, Obama has shored up what had been dwindling margins of victory for Democrats in Pennsylvania. A large victory for Bill Clinton in 1996 gave way to a slightly smaller one (4.2 points) for Al Gore in 2000. By 2004, John Kerry won the state by the skin of his teeth, with just a 2.5 point buffer. The latest polling shows Obama with a substantial lead, including a recent Quinnipiac poll that showed Obama ahead by as much as 12 points. McCain has not led in a single Keystone State study since late April.
