A major fulcrum upon which the elections in both 2000 and 2004 turned, Democrats and Republicans have battled furiously to put the Sunshine State- along with its 27 electoral votes (or, exactly 10% of those needed to clinch the White House)- in their respective columns. But it's been Republicans who've dominated the race. What was a one-tenth of a percent margin of victory back in 2000 balooned to a win of more than 5% in 2004. Vowing to make significant steps toward adding Florida to its reliable contingent south of the Mason-Dixon line, the GOP spent considerable time and resources reaching out to conservative elements in the state, especially elderly transplants to Florida and the anti-Castro Cuban population. And it appears as though it's paid off, at least to an extent.
Despite a massive Democratic sweep nationwide in 2006, Democratic challengers unseated just two Republican incumbents- one of whom was the disgraced Mark Foley, who resigned amid allegations of conducting sexually explicit conversations with his underage male pages (nonetheless, the GOP ticket in Foley's district managed to lose by just 1%). The other, E. Clay Shaw, was a 67-year-old Representative whose health raised serious questions (he'd been diagnosed with cancer for the second time).
The controversy over Florida's delegates to the 2008 Democratic National Convention only further complicated Democrats' attempts to maintain a foothold in the state. After Florida and Michigan violated party rules (under both the DNC and the RNC) by voting without sanction to move their primaries ahead of the Super Tuesday threshold, the parties took punitive action. Under the RNC rules, Florida was stripped of one half of its delegates. But in stark contrast, the Democrats made good on their promise to deny all of Florida's delegates, effectively rendering the results of the election moot. Moreover, the party banned Democratic candidates from campaigning in the state, further alienating voters there.
Though the DNC ultimately reversed its decision and adopted a plan of action similar to that of the GOP (giving Florida and Michigan delegates only ½ of a vote for each delegate to which they were entitles), the damage had been done. Between September of 2007 and late May of 2008, Obama did not lead John McCain in a single poll to emerge from Florida. In fact, McCain appeared to be building an insurmountable lead among the electorate, reaching a 16-point margin over Obama in mid-February, according to a Rasmussen poll at the time. In April, that lead seemed intact; a second Rasmussen poll conducted on the 10th of that month showed McCain holding strong at 15-points up.
In the past two months, however, Obama has brought the state into contention, lodging his first lead in a statewide poll in mid-June. A study from the American Research Group at the time gave Obama an 8-point buffer between he and the Arizona Senator.
Successive polls have bounced back and forth, ranging from a considerable 8-point advantage for McCain to a modest 2-point lead for Obama. The reversal of fortune may, once again, mean that Florida could swing the election- but this time the other way. Based on current polling in other states nationwide, a victory for Obama in the Sunshine State would likely put the Illinois Senator well over the number of electoral votes he needs to win the presidency.
