Politico.com posted an article today explaining why it is likely that McCain will let Obama make the first vp selection.  The reasoning is fairly clear - if you can wait for the other guy (and thereby have more information to make your decision), why not?  The Republican convention is a week after the Democratic convention, so McCain will probably make his selection either at or immediately before his acceptance.

Why does this matter?  It really comes down to two issues. 

First, the marriage of convenience between staunch Hillary supporters and the Obama campaign is fragile at best.  If Obama were to pick Bayh or Kaine as his running mate, it would create an opening for McCain to select someone like Gov. Sarah Palin in order to peel away some of the women's vote.  It's important to remember that while women are often referred to as a minority, they are actually the majority in terms of population in this country.  Obama may be leading by 10-15% among women, but a 5% dip from those numbers could (and probably would) be the difference in the election between an Obama or McCain win.

Pundits make a lot of Obama's poll numbers and ask why he is only 3-5 points ahead right now.  It's very early in the election cycle, and so that's not really a fair critique (but the MSM is rarely deterred by fairness).  Where was Obama against Hillary at this point last year?  What has been constant in the polls, and tends to be a better indicator, is that McCain has not been able to break 44%.  All the variance seems to be in Obama's poll numbers.  McCain basically has a ceiling to his numbers, so the only way that he can win is by pulling Obama's numbers down.  This brings us to the second but equally important reason to select Hillary.  We all got a preview of the fall campaign last week, and it became glaringly apparent that if Obama is to win, he's going to need a strong attack dog to push back on McCain's frivolous ads.

Who better to play the part?  The phrase "now the fun begins" still haunts Obama supporters to this day.  Clinton truly seems to relish a political dogfight, and actually performs better in those conditions.  Having her at his side would leave Obama free to be the political rock star that he is, while Clinton and her allies can do their hatchet job on McCain.  She can be his Dick Cheney.

The VP candidate typically disappears after the convention and only resurfaces at a national level at the lone vice presidential debate.  For political junkies who watched each of the 200 or so Democratic primary debates, it was pretty clear that the best debater on the stage was Hillary Clinton.  There is no one in serious contention for the number two spot that can come close to her. 

Some have argued that having a black man and a woman on the same ticket is too much change for America.  The reality though is that for those people for whom this is an issue, "black man" is probably enough to keep them from voting for the Democratic ticket.  Even if it does suppress Obama's numbers among white men, that was going to happen anyways, and Dems were going to lose white men no matter who was on the ticket (top or bottom).  The opportunity for positive gains among other constituencies however is very compelling: women, latinos, blue collar workers and the elderly.  The last two groups are especially important.  Blue collar workers are McCain's primary targets for increasing his base of support, and the elderly really are his base.  Cutting off the first and cutting into the second will make it impossible for McCain to win.

For those who think that Clinton muddies the "change" message of the Obama campaign, consider this:  How many women have been President or Vice President?  As long as the Obama campaign gets out ahead of the media and defines her as change personified, this shouldn't be a problem.  And there will be plenty of women to support this meme.  It's also important to remember that the VP doesn't dictate policy, they help execute it.  Obama supporters have already won that battle by getting him the nomination.

There is only one clear risk to selecting Hillary, and that is Bill.  It's not his off the cuff style of speaking - that may actually be helpful against a Republican - but rather that he has made a lot of money in the past decade and will be under intense scrutiny if Hillary is selected.  If Hillary is serious about the job, she is going to have to be proactive in dumping the information during the Olympics when it'll get the least coverage.  If there's nothing scandalous in his post-presidential record, Bill Clinton is still immensely popular, and dispatching him to the interior of the country could really help Obama.  If there are some scandals waiting in President Clinton's recent history, well, Africa is probably a wonderful place to spend September and October...

If the Obama Campaign wants to select Hillary, the beauty is that they can wait all the way to the convention.  Hillary Clinton is set to give an historic speech at the convention on the 88^th anniversary of the signing of the 19^th Amendment, which gave women the right to vote.  It would be the perfect time to announce her candidacy as the VP nominee.  It is hard to imagine Evan Bayh or Tim Kaine getting up on stage the next day and not attracting jeers or negative comparisons.  Outside of Obama, no one will electrify that crowd like Hillary.  Don't forget that she received 18 million votes from Democrats.

I have never been a Bill or Hillary Clinton fan, and it is for this reason that I volunteered my time and money during the primary to get Obama the nomination.  But I am a fan of winning.  And with any other choice, it seems like there is a chance for Obama to lose.  After the primaries were over, I hoped that there would be enough separation between Obama and McCain to make this selection unnecessary, but that hasn't happened.  Obama / Clinton '08!

A couple of important announcements...First, happy 47^th birthday, Barack! Second, we'll be announcing the winner of the veepstakes tomorrow morning, so check back!