As surprised as many political watchers were at John McCain’s surprise choice for his vice presidential running mate, looking at the selection of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin in retrospect makes a lot of sense. And going forward, it paints a clear picture of how the McCain camp plans to direct its fall campaign. The Republican veepstakes essentially came down to a select group of individuals: former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice, former Pennsylvania Governor and Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge, and a few GOP Senators. But breaking down the rationale behind the decision, it becomes clearer and clearer why McCain opted for the Alaska Republican. All of the veep contenders brought significant benefits to the table. Jindal would have at once shored up the conservative base and added a new element of diversity to the Republican ticket. But as popular as he is in Louisiana, Jindal has been in the governor’s mansion in Baton Rouge for less than nine months, so he was never really an option. Rice and Ridge both are incredibly experienced in foreign policy and security- two issues that essentially won the election for Bush in 2004. But both also have huge anchors around their necks as a result of their time in the unpopular Administration. And while Ridge might have given McCain an edge in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, the selection of a pro-choice candidate might have burned the last remaining plank on the bridge between McCain and social conservatives. Romney has become, in recent months, a darling of the right, but his preexisting problems remain (i.e., his liberal former stances, and- let’s face it- his Mormonism was a bit of a hang-up). That leaves Pawlenty, who might have been a good choice if not for the fact that it would have been too safe. The Minnesota chief executive was every bit the conservative that McCain needed to patch any holes in his ticket. But he’s nothing flashy. He has no remarkable back story, nothing that distinguishes him from the gaggle of other GOP vice presidential contenders. Now, Palin has some serious drawbacks of her own- the most obvious being that she is incredibly inexperience. By choosing her, McCain effectively torpedoed his own argument of Obama’s inexperience. Additionally, being a Washington outsider is a good thing, but Juneau, Alaska is about as far away from DC as one can get. She’s virtually unknown and untested. Moreover, McCain has hammered Obama for his lack of foreign policy experience. Palin has even less. But Palin’s golden ticket is her potential appeal to women. Aside from being a woman herself, she just might be one of the most relatable politicians in the country. She’s a mother of five, including one who is getting ready to deploy to Iraq. She’s a former beauty pageant contestant, an athlete, and just a few years ago, had nothing to do with politics at all. Take a look at the rhetoric coming from the right: just last week, Rudy Giuliani questioned Barack Obama’s judgment in not selecting Hillary Clinton to be his running mate, despite the fact that every political analyst from left to right derided the potential move as one of the most politically disastrous ideas of all time. In the meantime, McCain has begun running campaign ads featuring former Hillary supporters who’ve now switched camps because they think McCain is now the only “experienced candidate” left in the election. Add Palin to the mix, and you have one of the clearest signals a political campaign can possibly send: MCCAIN IS GOING AFTER ALIENATED HILLARY BACKERS.
Bold, underline, italics, and all caps. To put it simply, John McCain is still the underdog in this campaign. He is either even or slightly trailing Barack Obama in a number of states that George Bush won with ease. In order to compete, McCain is going to have to siphon away voters across the board. What better way to do that than to target an entire cross-section of the Democratic Party? To combat this, Democrats are going to have to do a better job- a hell of a better job- of uniting the party around Obama. How they do that will be up to them, but the fact is that McCain is telegraphing his playbook- Democrats just need to stand up, read the writing on the wall and react.
