Forget the close nationwide polls: Barack Obama is the runaway favorite to become the 44th President of the United States.
Now, when I say runaway, I don’t mean it’s going to be a landslide. What's likely is that the electoral vote count will be fairly close. But the fact is that in the states he's currently winning, Obama has a stranglehold, and it's becoming nearly impossible for McCain to stage a comeback. In the states McCain is winning, however, the margins are relatively slim, meaning that Obama could potentially steal a few electoral votes from underneath his opponent's nose.
Let’s start with the simplest of facts: in 2004, 18 electoral votes would have swung the election to John Kerry. Now, Kerry won 19 states and Washington, DC. This time around, Obama is cruising in all of them. In fact, Obama’s current margin is greater than Kerry’s in all but a few. Let’s take a look at the Kerry states:
2004 2008 (current polling)
Washington Kerry +8.2 Obama +10.5
Oregon Kerry +4.2 Obama +7.0
California Kerry +9.9 Obama +15.3
Hawaii Kerry +8.5 Obama +30.0
Minnesota Kerry +3.5 Obama +4.5
Wisconsin Kerry +0.4 Obama +7.2
Michigan Kerry +3.4 Obama +4.3
Illinois Kerry +10.4 Obama +21.7
Maryland Kerry +13.0 Obama +12.5
Pennsylvania Kerry +2.5 Obama +5.0
New York Kerry +18.3 Obama +16.0
Delaware Kerry +7.6 Obama +9.0
New Jersey Kerry +6.7 Obama +10.0
Connecticut Kerry +10.3 Obama +18.6
Rhode Island Kerry +21.0 Obama +24.3
Massachusetts Kerry +25.1 Obama +12.6
Maine Kerry +8.9 Obama +15.0
New Hampshire Kerry +1.3 Obama +0.3
Vermont Kerry +20.0 Obama +34.0
Washington, D.C. Kerry +80.0 Unavailable
To put it bluntly, Barack Obama isn’t going to lose any Kerry states (with the possible exception of New Hampshire, which carries four electoral votes). Of course, if Obama won just these states, he’d come up short- just like John Kerry did.
However, Obama also holds leads in the following states, all of which went to Bush in 2004:
2004 2008 (current polling)
Iowa (7) Bush +0.7 Obama +5.3
New Mexico (5) Bush +0.6 Obama +4.3
Colorado (9) Bush +4.7 Obama +0.4
Net Electoral Vote Gain for Obama if He Maintains His Lead In These States: +21
If Obama can manage to hang on to the states that he’s got right now- which should be a cinch except for Colorado and New Hampshire- he wins the White House by just a few electoral votes in November.
But here’s the kicker- McCain is barely hanging on to four additional states that were easy Bush victories in 2004:
2004 2008 (current polling)
Virginia (13) Bush +8.2 TIE
Nevada (7) Bush +2.6 McCain +1.0
Ohio (20) Bush +2.1 McCain +1.2
Florida (27) Bush +5.0 McCain +3.1
In all likelihood, McCain is going to be hard-pressed to hang onto all of these Bush states. If Obama were to win in Virginia, he wouldn’t need Colorado or New Hampshire. And with the former Democratic governor in a ridiculously lopsided race for the state’s open Senate seat, there is a good possibility that Obama paints the Old Dominion State blue for the first time since 1964.
