Let’s go out on a limb and say that, more than likely, Barack Obama will be sworn in as the 44th President of the United States come Jamuary 20th, 2009. After all, Obama is comfortably leading in enough states today so that even if John McCain were to miraculously stage comebacks in every single "tossup" state (including some where he is consistently polling at a four-point plus deficit) and then some, Obama would still have enough electoral votes to take a seat in the big chair in the Oval Office. Right now, the question most realistic analysts are asking themselves is not who the next president will be, but rather just how much of a slaughtering McCain will be forced to endure on Election Day.
In many ways, sending his Republican opponent back home to Arizona might be just about the easiest task on Barack Obama’s to-do list. Because after he takes office, the new challenge of managing expectations will be fully upon him.
It’s not that Obama isn’t a talented or inspiring leader. He is. Moreover, it’s not that he’s incapable of fulfilling the promises he’s made on the campaign trail. Again, he is. In fact, it really has nothing to do with Obama at all. Rather, the problem lay in the natural tendency of people (and more importantly in this case, voters) to expect noticeable results much quicker than is either humanly or bureaucratically possible. Government is a big, slow-moving machine. And that can work to Obama’s disadvantage.
Universal health care will not happen over night, nor will an end to foreign conflict or a resurgence of our economy. You will not wake up on the day after Inauguration Day to a newspaper that tells you that 100,000+ troops are on their way home and or that Dow Jones Industrial Average has reached a new high. It will take months to even begin to put the structures of the future in place, and years before the average American will see a difference in their everyday lives.
And as frustrating as that may be, Obama will be the target of all relevant criticisms. That’s why moving swiftly, appointing credible, accountable executives to oversee the changes, and giving the American people an accurate picture of progress will be among the new president’s chief responsibilities.
In 2012, Republicans will field a stronger than John McCain. As a candidate, McCain has more holes than you can count. But whomever he or she may be, they will hammer at what might even remotely be perceived as a failure to live up to expectations. The onus will be on Obama to keep those expectations reasonable, and to fill them as reasonably quickly as possible.
