Just 22 days away from the election to decide who will become the 44th President of the United States, Barack Obama has taken leads in nine states that were won by George W. Bush in 2004. Iowa, New Mexico, Virginia, Florida, Colorado, Ohio, Nevada, Missouri, and North Carolina all voted Republican in 2004. With the exception of New Mexico, all of them voted Republican in 2000 as well, in addition to New Hampshire (which was the only state to flip from red to blue four years later). But according to the polling averages compiled by RealClearPolitics.com, all of them now lean toward the Democratic candidate. On the other side, GOP presidential nominee John McCain is not leading in any states won by 2004 Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry. Though Obama’s lead in a number of these states remains tenuous- he’s up just 1 point in North Carolina, 2.2 points in Missouri, 2.9 points in Ohio, and 3.2 points in Nevada- his lead in other red states has ballooned. The Democratic Senator is maintaining comfortable margins in excess of five percentage points in Iowa, New Mexico, Florida, and Virginia. All together, the Bush states now favoring Obama account for 112 electoral votes, or roughly 42% of the 270 total electoral votes needed to secure the White House. In 2004, Kerry finished with 252 electoral votes. Obama is highly likely to hold all of those states. If Obama indeed maintains his leads through election day, and combines the 112 new electoral votes with the 252 Kerry secured for himself, he’ll have pulled down 364. That puts him four shy of the 370 electoral votes needed for a “landslide” victory. (There is some disagreement over whether a “landslide” begins at 350 electoral votes or 370. For these purposes, we’ve chosen the latter number) Additionally, Obama trails, but remains competitive in another three states that were Bush havens four years ago. In West Virginia, McCain leads by just 2.2 points; in Indiana, he leads by 3.8; in Georgia, he leads by 6.3 (though party insiders are hoping that an influx of newly registered Democrats typically not counted in state-by-state polling actually belie much more favorable conditions for Obama in the Peach State). Should Obama achieve unexpected victories there as well, he’ll net an additional 31 electoral votes, bringing his total haul to 395, the most won by any Democrat since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
