Next week, Independent Connecticut Joseph I. Lieberman will face a secret ballot to decide whether he’ll be stripped of his chairmanship of the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs for his support of Republican John McCain’s presidential bid, and for his keynote address at the 2008 Republican National Convention. During a meeting earlier this week, Lieberman told Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid that if he loses his post, he’ll head for the Republican caucus, effectively eliminating one from the Democrats burgeoning 57-seat (and likely more, depending on the outcome of pending contests in three states) majority.
Last week, I wrote an article about why Democrats shouldn’t look to punish Lieberman if it will mean risking his joining the Republican minority. In short, his vote- which, while hawkish on foreign policy, has been incredibly reliable for Democrats on domestic issues- is too valuable as Democrats near a filibuster-proof 60-seat majority in the Senate. Additionally, losing Lieberman would be akin to having lost one of the Senate races Democrats fought so hard- and spent so much money- to win in 2008 (including Mark Udall’s Colorado seat, where the Democrat spent more than $10 million).
But regardless of what happens to Lieberman in the secret balloting among his Senate colleagues, it’s unlikely he’ll have the political juice to get reelected in 2012, when he’s next up for reelection. And if he has to face one particular candidate, he could be in serious trouble.
Back in May of 2007, Rhode Island Congressman Patrick Kennedy told the New York Post that his brother, Connecticut resident Edward Kennedy, Jr., was looking to get into the family business of politics. Though the 47-year old lawyer and investment banker ultimately chose to sit out the 2008, there remains the distinct possibility that he’ll seek public office in the near future. And with all of Connecticut’s House seats currently occupied by Democrats, that significantly narrows the field of potential non-Democratic targets.
If Kennedy were to challenge Lieberman, who lost the Democratic primary in 2006, it’s unlikely he’d face any serious opposition. His father, Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts, is still the de facto leader of the Democratic Party in the Senate, and commands respect from the entire caucus. Moreover, it was the elder Kennedy’s support of Barack Obama that won the newly-minted President-elect the backing of the party establishment. Ted Kennedy, Jr. has a built-in support system that is underwritten by perhaps the highest profile political family in American history. If he runs, no other Democrat will think to challenge him in the primary.
But more than that, it would be surprising if Lieberman, who will be 70 years old in another four years, would be up for that kind of challenge. Lieberman’s support would likely be fractured, and with a candidate like Kennedy, he’d be hard-pressed to repeat his lone-ranger win of 2006, in which he challenged the Democratic candidate as an Independent and still managed to win his seat back.
Kennedy has a strong academic background, earning an undergraduate degree from Wesleyan University in 1983, and followed that several years later with a Master’s from Yale University. He earned a law degree from the University of Connecticut. He went on to work for the law firm of Wiggin & Dana, before opening his own Wall Street investment banking firm, the Marwood Group. He’s married to Yale University clinical psychiatry professor Katherine Anne “Kiki” Gershman Kennedy.
There is, however, the possibility that Connecticut’s other Senator, Democrat Christopher Dodd, could retire at the end of his term in 2010, when he’ll be 66, and will have served in the Senate for 30 years. If so, Kennedy could get involved in the race, though that contest may attract more primary attention than a race against Lieberman.
