But it might be time for Dodd to retire. Dodd has hit a rough patch in the past several years. After close to three decades of sky-high approval ratings and wide margins for each of his reelections since first winning his Senate seat in the 1980 elections, Dodd has seen his approval ratings plummet after a number of controversies have called the Senator’s judgment into question. And perhaps it’s just bad timing, but nearly all of them center around a big public sore spot in the meltdown of the financial markets. In June of 2008, Conde Nast Portfolio reported that a number of Senators, including Dodd and North Dakota Democrat Kent Conrad, had received home mortgages below market value from national giant Countrywide Financial. Dodd, the Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, spends a significant amount of his time working with the flailing US banking system, and has proposed buyouts that would be favorable to the mortgage giant. Dodd never declared the mortgages in his Senate financial disclosure documents, nor has he complied with public demands that he release information regarding the terms of the his mortgages. Countrywide Financial nearly collapsed in 2008, and was ultimately acquired in a takeover by Bank of America Then, as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac spiraled out of control in the Fall, Dodd continued to insist that the GSE’s were “fundamentally strong.” Within months, both would fall under the authority of the Federal Housing Finance Agency in some of the largest federal takeovers in US history. As a result, Dodd’s approval rating has tanked. A Quinnipiac poll in February put just 41% behind the veteran Senator, with 48% disapproving (that number improved a little in March to 49-41% positive, but still remains below the dangerous 50% mark). But the really damning number was the percentage of Connecticut voters who said they plan to vote against him in 2010: a whopping 51%. Former Republican Congressman Rob Simmons- who lost his seat in the 2006 Democratic wave- is said to be considering a bid against him. In more bad news for Dodd, the same March poll that showed Dodd’s approving rating increasing also had him trailing Simmons. That’s bad news, considering Simmons hasn’t even declared his candidacy. Connecticut is not a seat Democrats should lose. New England is a party stronghold, and has been since the Kennedy era. Especially considering the gains Democrats have made in New Hampshire (where Democrat Jeanne Shaheen defeated incumbent Republican John Sununu in 2008), and even as far south as Pennsylvania (where Democrats added Bob Casey to their ranks in 2006), Connecticut must stay in their column. Give Dodd until June. Right now, he’s planning a PR blitz that will include a book on the Mortgage Crisis (he’s calling it “Thirteen Days: How the Financial Crisis Changed the Politics in Washington,” clearly harkening back to Robert F. Kennedy’s book on the Cuban Missile Crisis, simply called “Thirteen Days”). If he can pull his approval rating up by then, and he leads any Republican challenger by 5 points or more, let him run. But if not, he’s got to get out of the way. It’s been a great career of public service, but not good enough to justify giving the seat to Republicans at a time when being in the majority (and not just a majority, but a supermajority) is so important. If he does retire, there are plenty of Connecticut Democrats who would be ready and willing to step into his place. Rep. John Larson is an established Congressman who’s been elected and reelected six times. Rep. Rosa DeLauro might be a bit too liberal to win a statewide contest, but Rep. Courtney and Chris Murphy would be top contenders as well. There’s also Attorney General Richard Blumenthal- a Harvard/Yale Law grad who is widely popular in the state (Blumenthal has expressed interest in the seat if Dodd should retire, or alternatively in Joe Lieberman’s seat in 2012). Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz has already declared her candidacy for Governor in 2010, but has gone on the record with her concerns about Dodd creating a drag on her election prospects. The final possible candidate is Ted Kennedy, Jr., who was said by his brother, Rhode Island Congressman Patrick Kennedy, to be considering an entry in politics. Any time a Kennedy gets involved with New England politics, things get interesting. With his father still serving in Massachusetts and his cousin Caroline’s recent attempt in New York, he may be preparing behind the scenes for a bid of his own. In any event, Dodd can’t (and probably won’t) put the party in jeopardy if 2010 draws nearer and he’s a liability to the party. Because even if he can win, he also can’t put the party in a position of having to spend a lot of money to defend a seat that should be a sure thing. In 2012, Democrats will have 24 seats on the chopping block. 2010 may be their last chance to be on offense. But if they really want to, they can’t be on defense in a place like Connecticut.
It’s been a great career. Senior Senator from Connecticut Chris Dodd, a five-term Democrat and 2008 Presidential contender, is the longest-serving Senator in the history of his state, and the 10th most senior in the entire 100-member legislative body.
