Despite an incredibly disciplined political operation emanating from the White House since President Barack Obama took office in January, the administration has not been able to stave off what are sure to be two contentious Democratic primary fights in key states for the party in 2010.
Months of speculation surrounding Rep. Carolyn Maloney drew closer to an end today when a senior advisor speaking on condition of anonymity told the New York Daily News that the 8-term Congresswoman will, in fact, run for the Senate seat currently held by Democrat Kirstin Gillibrand. New York Governor David Paterson appointed Gillibrand- herself a former Representative from upstate New York- to the fill the position vacated earlier this year by now-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
The move, however, is hardly surprising. Maloney has refused to rule out jumping into the race, and has been vocal in her criticism of Gillibrand, whom she accuses of having an "evolving" stance on key issues like gun control and immigration. The 61-year old Manhattan legislator was likely spurred on by data indicating that she'd perform strongly in a matchup against Gillibrand. In early June, a Politico poll showed Maloney edging Gillibrand 34% to 32%. After respondents were read arguments against each Senator, Maloney had a crushing lead, 49% to 25%. The winner will likely face an uphill battle in the general elections, will former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Governor George Pataki being frequently mentioned as potential candidates.
The White House had sought to keep the field clear for Gillibrand's special election, avoiding an expensive primary fight that could end up damaging the party's eventual nominee. President Obama personally placed a call to Democratic New York Representative Steve Israel- who had also been considering challenging Gillibrand- to urge him to sit out the 2010 race. Israel complied, and though it's not clear whether the White House has placed a similar call to Rep. Maloney, it's becoming more apparent that it won't have similar success there. However, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel has affirmed that the Gillibrand will have the Administration's support through all phases of the election.
Representative Joe Sestak, a Pennsylvania Democrat and retired Vice Admiral, is also nearing a final decision on a Senate bid of his own. Sestak would challenge longitme Senator Arlen Specter, who switched parties from Republican to Democrat earlier this year. Senior Democratic officials in the White House and on Capitol Hill had hoped to make the 2010 election an easy transition for Specter, whose name recognition is unparalelled in the Keystone State. But Sestak, who questions Specter's reasons for switching parties and his commitment to the Democratic platform, has been blunt about his plan to seek higher office. In May, he told Wolf Blitzer of CNN's The Situation Room, "I have personally made a decision that I intend to get in this race," and that all that was left to do was to obtain the final approval of his wife and young daughter. In June, he told a Democratic Party Committeeman in Pennsylvania that it would take "an act of God" to keep him from challenging Specter.
But Sestak faces decidedly longer odds than Maloney, at least in the primary. Despite his party-switch, Specter holds a commanding 20-point advantage over Sestak, according to a recent poll from Franklin/Marshall. But if Sestak can manage to upset his 79-year old opponent in the primary, he'd have an excellent chance to win in the general electionwith the help of Pennsylvania's Democrat-friendly environment. Maloney faces the opposite scenario: while she has an early edge on Gillibrand, both Giuliani and Pataki are polling even with their Democratic counterparts.
Both Gillibrand and Specter are expected to have a significant fundraising advantage.
