Two states, two congressional districts, and a gaggle of cities will head to the polls on November 3rd to elect new leaders.
New Jersey
First up, the Garden State. Despite a dismal approval rating over his first term in office, Democratic Governor Jon Corzine has crawled back from an astonishing deficit to a statistical dead heat with his two general election opponents.
Back in January, Republican opponent and former US Attorney Christopher Christie took a lead in opinion polls for the first time, and Corzine has yet to post a survey showing him in the lead. At its highest point, the differential between Corzine and Christie stood at 15 points. But just yesterday, Corzine came within 3 points of Christie in a new Monmoth study, within the margin of error.
Also a factor in the race is Christopher Dagget, a former staffer to Republican Governor Tom Kean who is polling at about 6% as an Independent candidate. Dagget has indicated that he'll stay in the race, most likely leaching votes from Christie. But if he were to drop out, the additional votes against Corzine could be enough to bump the incumbent from office.
The closeness of this race is nothing new for elections in New Jersey. Nearly each of the presidential and midterm congressional elections over the past four cycles have been decided by less than 5 points in either direction. But New Jersey almost always breaks late, and in recent years, in the direction of Democrats.
Virginia
But in the Old Dominion State, Democrats might not be so lucky. Creigh Deeds, a state Senator, defeated by a convincing margin a titan of Democratic politics, former DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe, despite being outspent by more than four to one. Still, Republican Attorney General Bob McDonnell was nominated largely by acclamation, facing no serious opposition.
But McDonnell has led in general election polling almost wire to wire, and Deeds has been unable to close the gap in these crucial final weeks. Current numbers seem to show Deeds hovering anywhere from 5 to 11 points behind McDonnell.
The state legislative races will also be competitive in Virginia, where Democrats had experienced a streak of sucess in recent years (including the election of two straight Democratic governors, two new Democratic US Senators, a handufll of Democrats in the US House, control of both legislators, and the awarding of its electoral college votes for a Democrat for the first time in decades). On the outskirts of the populous, Democratic-leaning areas of Northern Virginia, Democrats are bound to lose a few key seats, but it remains to be seen whether enough offices will change hands to tip the balance toward the GOP.
Big Cities
Several major US cities will be holding municipal elections as well, though little change is expected.
- Incumbent Indpendent Michael Bloomberg is widely favored to win a third term in New York City.
- Incumbent Democrat Luke Ravenstahl is favored for reelection in Pittsburgh
- Incumbent Democrat Tom Menino is favored for reelection in Boston
- Democrat Shirley Franklin is term-limited in Atlanta, though the seat will likely remain Democrat
- Democrat Bill White is term-limited in Houston, though the seat will likely remain Democrat
- Incumbent Democrat Dave Bing (who won a special election earlier in the year) is favored for reelection in Detroit
