In a much-less covered race than those in upstate New York, New Jersey, and Virginia, California Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi is cruising to victory by close to a 20-point margin, keeping a longtime Democratic seat firmly in the blue column.
As expected, Garamendi looks assured the win in the race to succeed former Rep. Ellen Tauscher, a Democrat who was tapped earlier this year by President Barack Obama to become Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security. But the margin by which he does it may be far beyond what most pundits thought possible.
Polling by Survey USA in the final days of October showed Garamendi with a relatively dominant 10-point lead. Nonetheless, that number was well below the 30% and greater margins that Tauscher commanded over her last four reelection contests. But Garamendi may perform beyond the expectations set by the Survey USA poll, if the 20-point lead he has now remains steady. That's not bad for a first-time candidate: even Tauscher, who won her seat for the first time in 1992, took four reelection bids before she was able to achieve any margin of victory greater than 10%.
Garamendi's Republican opponent was David Harmer, an attorney whose father served in Garamendi's current posision as Lieutenant Governor in the mid 1970s.
Garamendi is an old hand in state Democratic politics, and has served in one capacity or another almost continuously since being elected to the state legislature in 1975. He became California Insurance Commissioner in 1991 before being appointed Deputy Secretary of the Interior by President Clinton in 1995. In 2003, he ran for Insurance Commissioner once more and won his old seat. He was elected Lieutenant Governor in 2007.
Garamendi flirted with a run for the Governor's mansion against Jerry Brown and Gavin Newsom, but jumped at the opportunity to return to Washington when Tauscher's seat became vacant.
