|Author||Rating: 0 Topic: Odds of Obama Landslide Now Better than Odds of McCain Victory (Read 2483 times)|
« Reply #0: Oct 27, 2008, 10:09 PM »
Las Vegas has moved from taking bets on whether or not GOP presidential nominee John McCain’s campaign will go down, and started allowing wagers on just big the flames will be as it does.
Online betting site Intrade has given McCain long odds since the start. But as Barack Obama has sustained wide leads in a plethora of battleground states, and even pulled further away in many of them, the payout for a bet on McCain becoming the 44th President of the United States has gotten larger and larger. And that’s bad news for a GOP campaign that has been struggling to hang on to states that voted overwhelmingly for George W. Bush in 2004- like Virginia (which Bush won by 8.2%), North Carolina (Bush +12.4%), Missouri (Bush +7.2%), and Indiana (Bush +20.5%). Obama now leads in each of those states.
Odds of an Obama landslide- meaning that he earns not just the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election, but one hundred more for a total of 370 out of 438 in all- have been increasing rapidly. Some betting houses have listed the chances as high as 6/4 - meaning that for every a better would get six dollars for every four he puts down. McCain’s odds of winning are closer to 11/2 - meaning that a two dollar bet on even the slightest of McCain victories would yield eleven dollars. Bookies aren’t in the business of handing out money. The above numbers suggest that betting houses across the country see an Obama landslide as far more likely.
Though the process of computing betting odds is subject to a great degree of objectivity, it’s worth noting that the odds themselves have been highly accurate indicators of electoral outcomes in the past. In 2004, Intrade managed to accurately predict which way states would vote in the presidential contest 100% of the time. This, even as many analysts and pundits forecasted a win for John Kerry. Polling in Florida in the days leading up to the election indicated that Kerry had a good chance to win the Sunshine State, but Intrade correctly predicted a comfortable win for Bush.
Market predictions are far from a sure thing. Many online betting sites gave Obama strong odds to win the New Hampshire primary, only to see it won by Hillary Clinton in the end. Moreover, odds can change up through the day of the election. However, with just a little more than a week to go before Election Day, McCain is going to have to overcome some extremely heavy odds.
Currently, Intrade predicts that Obama will be the next President of the United States, winning 364 electoral votes to John McCain’s 174. Bill Clinton was the last candidate to win landslide victories, which he did in 1992 as well as 1996.
« Reply #1: Oct 28, 2008, 12:04 AM »
Here's an interesting suggestion regarding BHO, his mother, and the classic psychological effects of being born bi-racial. Psycho-Historians whom have studied Adolph Hitlers relationships have determined that Hitler fully believed his grandfather was a Jew. This they say, lead him to self-loathe and bred in him a deep hatred for all Jews. This of course led to his actions against them, millions died. I suggest that this same mental illness afflicts BHO except the hatred is focused on whites. (he openly describes himself as a "black man" and has rejected his own half white blood. Read his books to discover how he truly feels about whites and his own "identity". Many other sources are available as well) It's obvious from the facts regarding his upbringing, that he didn't have a very close relationship with his mother and might well have hated her. Whatever the case, the whole family thing seems all screwy at best. So, is it possible that BHO has similar feelings and/or illnesses shared by Hitler? If so, what does this mean to white Americans? How about all other races apart from blacks? The point is, it seems he is indeed mentally unstable/ill in much the same way Hitler was.
Keep in mind that Hitler was a very eloquent orator, kept details of his family & personal life well hidden, emerged from the lowest level of society, aligned himself with people of power, succeeded in completely deceiving an entire nation, inspired cult-like devotion, and plunged the entire world into the largest and worst war mankind had ever known. Striking similarities wouldn't you say? I have included links to inform and support my suggestions.