It's been four days now, but analysts across the political spectrum are still trying to understand Sarah Palin's logic in stepping down as Governor of Alaska effective July 26th.  Both conservative radio guru Rush Limbaugh and former Bush advisor Karl Rove used the word "perplexing" to describe the move, while others were less forgiving, like Republican Senator from Alaska Lisa Murkowski, who called Palin's decision "disappointing."  Palin announced her resignation on Friday.

Whatever her reasons are, it appears that Palin has her eye on the ball: the 2012 presidential election.  There are two problems with that.  First, that ball hasn't even been thrown yet.  And second of all, did she learn nothing from what happened to John McCain when he abandoned one task to tend to another?

Back on September 25 of 2008, the financial crisis had gone from bad to worse almost overnight, and McCain (who had earlier declared that the "fundamentals of our economy are strong") made the decision to "suspend" his campaign for long enough to return to Washington and deal with the business of the economy.  The move backfired.  Obama seized on the opportunity to slam McCain for not being able to deal with multiple responsibilities at once, something that is constantly required of an American President.

Palin's situation seems hardly different.  Admittedly, Palin isn't getting as much press as she could if she were traveling the lower 48 states with relative frequency.  And as the economy continues to falter, it's governors that are taking the heaviest beating.  But what will go down on the record books is that when things got tough politically, Palin bailed.

McCain's disaster should have taught Palin a valuable lesson: you can't call time out and feign concern as you throw attention at one problem while ignoring another.  Similarly, you can't say, "This game isn't fun anymore.  I quit, because I want to be president."  If she can't handle a few bumps in the road in Alaska, how can she run a world superpower?

Palin's decision to quit will leave her to run for president in 2012 with less than 2.5 years of political experience (that's not counting her time as Mayor of Wasilla).  Even if she had declined to run for reelection in 2010, she still would have walked away with a full term under her belt.

Still, Palin polls well among Republican voters.  In recent weeks, she's been identified as the most popular candidate in the potential Republican field.  Holding onto that popularity, though, may be tougher than she thinks.

Dodging an Alaskan Bullet

By Richard Cohen. www.washingtonpost.com
Tuesday, July 7, 2009

 

In his novel "The Plot Against America," Philip Roth imagined that Charles Lindbergh, an isolationist and an anti-Semite (but a hell of a flier), ran for president in 1940 and beat Franklin Roosevelt. In his novel "Fatherland," Robert Harris imagined a Britain that had succumbed to the Nazis. These works are categorized as "alternate history." Here is my contribution to the genre: Sarah Palin becomes president of the United States.

Far-fetched? Not really. After all, Palin was on the Republican ticket, and the Democratic candidate was both untested nationally and the first African American to claim the nomination. A significant misstep here or there and the winner could have been John McCain, the oldest man ever to be elected to a first term as president.

My brothers and sisters in punditry spent a jolly Fourth of July weekend having a swell time with Palin and her decision to quit as governor of Alaska. Her words were parsed for their meaning and her plans were deduced while political operatives of both parties analyzed her move to see if she is really very clever or as dumb as a mud wall. A good time was had by all.

It would behoove us, though, to consider how close we all came to utter disaster -- the "counterfactual" suggested above. A recent Vanity Fair article clarifies just how awful a vice president (or president) Palin would have made. During the campaign, she proved allergic to briefings and remained determined to stay uncorrupted by knowledge. More recently, she explained her decision to -- permit me some GOP talk -- cut and run as Alaska governor by lapsing into no known language, explaining herself afterward in a burst of Tweets that only raised more questions. One question, though, has been settled: She is unfit for office.

Naming Palin to the GOP ticket -- a top-down choice by McCain -- was the most reckless decision any national politician has made in the longest time, and while it certainly says something about McCain, it says even more about his party. It has lost its mind.

Recall, after all, that Palin was not McCain's first choice. That was either Joe Lieberman or Tom Ridge. Both were rejected by the party establishment because of their appalling moderation on social issues over which the president has little direct authority anyway -- abortion, above all -- and in Lieberman's case because he had been a Democrat. In desperation, McCain turned to Palin.

Was there a scream of protest? No. Did the Republican Party demand to know of McCain what the hell he had done? Again, no. Was it okay with the GOP if the person a heartbeat away from the presidency was -- pardon me, but it's true -- a ditz with no national experience whatsoever? You betcha. The party had cracked up, accepting a nullity because she was antiabortion over a seasoned senator and former governor because they were not. Ideology won. The nation lost.

Almost as interesting as Palin is South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford. Never mind his affair. These things happen. Concentrate instead on how he hid his affair -- by disappearing and calling attention to himself. Note also that even before he somehow took the Appalachian Trail to Buenos Aires, he was renowned for rejecting federal stimulus money. Before that, as a congressman, he claimed to have forsaken a housing allowance -- and a cot -- and said, "I sleep on the floor of my office." Most of us would consider this weird behavior. In the GOP, it was seen as presidential timber.

Shall I go on? Newt Gingrich, another possible candidate, is the Old Faithful of the Grand Old Party, erupting on a regular basis. He recently suggested that Judge Sonia Sotomayor is racist because of her comment about the innate astuteness of a "wise Latina." He later apologized, but his hair trigger is well established. This is the same Gingrich, you may recall, who threw a tantrum in 1995 when President Bill Clinton seated him in the rear of Air Force One and then, with ingenious malice aforethought, failed to come back to chat. As for the other GOP candidates, all of them must be vetted by the party's Grand Inquisitor, Rush Limbaugh, a belch from the gutter.

For Tina Fey, Sarah Palin was comedic material. For the rest of us, she's been a summer weekend's diversion. But when the chuckling stops, you have to ask yourself what in the world she was doing on the GOP ticket and what would have happened if McCain had won. Only part of this is alternate history. The rest is frightening reality.

cohenr@washpost.com

there is nothing hard about this picture...Sarah Palin is a gold-digging opportunist..pure and simple..

she parlayed her beauty-queen popularity into policis seeking fame and fortune...

after getting a house, use of a wardrobe, all-expenses paid trips (kinda sounds like a game show..doesn't it??)...and fame from being McCain's running mate she is ready to cash in and go on..no more gold in these hills..she scraped them clean..

by not serving the term to which she was elected. "Quitter" is too nice of a term.

She can make $20 million in the next 12 months doing speechs, a radio show, commentaries, and selling a ghost written book with her name on it. She resigned for the money, like a college star athlete leaving school a year early to turn pro. She's got a family and bills to pay and raking in $20 million in the time it would have taken her to finish out her lame duck term seems like a good idea, even to me. Assuming she had no real love of political service, the people she represented, or a future beyond making a super easy and comfortable living. It's not like she's the first politician to serve a short time, get famous and then retire to the private sector to make a small mint. Remember her only education is in Journalism.

but it would be a greater defiance of historical precedent than anything I've ever heard of.

A few presidents, like Barack Obama and Woodrow Wilson, had less than a full term in office because they had to quit to enter the presidency. And those like Eisenhower who had never held public office invariably had a distinguished career outside politics.

All the rest of the presidents, without exception, served at least one full term in an office of importance to a presidential candidate's resume. Having an incomplete political resume and no prominent pre-political career and then ascending to the presidency is absolutely unheard of.

that is very well put. it jives with what she was doing during the campaign re: desinger clothes and stuff. She needs the money!

like that are meaningless this far out. Ask Hillary Clinton. They mean nothing. She took herself out of the game and will not be the nominee...unless Jindal and other potential nominees absolutely crater.

I have no doubt she'll run. But by doing this, I believe she just gave us Jindal, Huckabee or Gingrich as the GOP nominee.

already cratered

Jindal just gave a bad speech. But it's impossible for him to give a good one, when he's put side by side with Barack Obama, who is arguably the best orator this country has seen in generations.

Jindal still has a shot, especially if the GOP seeks a return to their roots, I.E. the South. Granted a minority Republican from the South would be a break from tradition, the reliance on Dixie would not be.

And if that's the case, it comes down to Jindal or Huckabee or perhaps Haley Barbour of MS...now that Sanford is gone from the race.

For what it's worth, the only two serious contenders not in the South were Palin and Ensign...that we know of anyways. The others, Jindal, Huckabee, Gingrich and Barbour are all Southerners.....and extreme to boot.

Maybe he'll even become a christian, ha ha to get the votes. 'Course Mormons consider themselves christians, so he doesn't really have to convert. Anyhow, Romney may well be the nominee along with the rest of your accurate list. Romney would shred Palin, from her ignorance on policy and the world to her quitter status.

Palin and learn don't belong in the same sentence.

 

Palin doesn't think, she regurgitates, and what she regurgitates she usually garbles.