Before you assume that Barack Obama is simply pushing Democrats off an electoral cliff with his relentless pursuit of reform, keep this in mind: Obama for America was the most disciplined presidential campaigns in recent memory, and as the press readily admits, Obama and his team never really got out of campaign mode.  So while some strategists and pundits are pulling their hair out as Democratic approval levels (including the president's) are plummeting, don't be surprised that Obama's people aren't too worried.

Sure, the past few months have been (as promised during the two-year presidential campaign) jam-packed with reform and change.  Maybe even a little too much for some Americans.  In just under thirty weeks, Obama has signed into law a bevy of major legislation: the Leadbetter Fair Pay Act, the S-CHIP reauthorization, a major energy bill, credit card reform, a landmark stimulus package, an ambitious budget, a huge national service bill, Cash for Clunkers, and now (ostensibly) the first health care reform legislation in decades (though we;re still not sure just how that reform will look).

Here's a prediction: if Obama can deliver health care reform before Thanksgiving, Democrats will launch back into campaign mode before the new year.  Even as Obama pushed through all of the other bills- some of them quite controversial- his approval rating, as well as that of Congressional Democrats, held together considerably well.  It's only been in the last two months that health care reform has shaken the pedestal of Democratic support.

But once health care reform is finished, Democrats have upwards of a year to push the same kind of less controversial legislation that was so popular during their "First 100 Hours" back in early 2007, while still being able to lay claim to having worked for real reform.  Confusion and anger over the misinformation campaign of Republican operatives to derail health care reform will have died down significantly, allowing Democrats to spend time talking about real legislative accomplishments.

What's more is that by the new year, Democrats may have some results to show for their efforts.  Unemployment has slowed, and the economy outperformed analyst predictions in nearly every category last quarter.  If the condition continues to improve, Democrats can lay claim to turning around in less than a year a horrendous economic recession that took eight years to create.  And it will also give Democrats the opportunity to trumpet the success of the stimulus, which Republicans on Capitol Hill almost unanimously opposed.

So don't believe that Democrats are headed for slaughter in 2010...at least not yet.  Approval numbers were bound to take a hit as the party put a firm grip on health care reform, which has become almost a third rail of modern politics.  But as Democrats push through their frontloaded reform schedule, they're left with plenty of time to revamp their image, and for the first time since taking Congress back in 2006, to show real results for even the most controversial items on their legislative agenda.

"It's the economy, stupid" was the cliche used successfully by the Bill Clinton campaign in 1992. Although the president usually gets both more credit and more blame than he really deserves regarding the economy, recognizing that fact does not diminish it. If the economy is perceived as doing well next year, the Democrats, who control both the White House and both houses of Congress, will get the credit. Conversely, if the economy is perceived as doing poorly, the Democrats will get the blame. In either case, the credit or blame assigned to them will almost certainly far exceed what is deserved.

It is also true, of course, that the party in power usually incurs a net loss of seats in the non-presidential election years.

The above points are generally true, no matter who is in the White House or in Congress. The additional factor, special to the present circumstances, is what happens with healthcare reform. If Congress can pass something that can credibly be called healthcare reform by the end of this year, regardless of the details, it will raise President Obama's stature. If they fail, the failure will seriously erode Obama's prestige, and I would expect the Democrats to get clobbered in the 2010 elections.

The moderates and progressives among congressional Democrats will have to find a way to come together, recognizing that the finished product will not be ideal to anybody. It is probably time for some serious lobbying by President Obama and VP Biden. Something has to get done, and if it does not get done by the end of calendar 2009, I doubt that it will get done at all.

The Bard of Wilmette Website Link

...on exactly what "healthcare reform" turns out to be. Right now, it looks like it will make the middle class worse off, drive faster premium increases, and require people to purchase insurance -- or else. That is a prescription for electoral disaster in 2010. As would be no healthcare bill passing.